Does the Future Belong to China?
未来属于中国?
A new power is emerging in the East. How America should handle unprecedented new challenges, threats—and opportunities.
一个新的力量正在东方展露头角. 美国该如何应付这种空前的新挑战,新威胁以及新机遇.
By Fareed ZakariaNewsweek
May 9 issue - Americans admire beauty, but they are truly dazzled by bigness. Think of the Grand Canyon, the California redwoods, Grand Central Terminal, Disney World, SUVs, the American armed forces, General Electric, the Double Quarter Pounder (With Cheese) and the Venti Latte. Europeans prefer complexity and nuance, the Japanese revere minuteness and minimalism. But Americans like size, preferably supersize.
5月9日 发行 - 美国人喜欢美好的事物,但是他们更愿意相信强大. 比如大峡谷,加州红枫,超级终端,迪斯尼世界,SUVs,国防武装力量,通用电器,the Double Quarter Pounder (With Cheese) 以及Venti Latte. 欧洲人更喜欢做工繁复和精细,日本人推崇细致入微.但是,美国人喜欢按大小排列,或者说超级尺寸.
That's why China hits the American imagination so hard. It is a country whose scale dwarfs the United States—1.3 billion people, four times America's population. For more than a hundred years it was dreams of this magnitude that fascinated small groups of American missionaries and businessmen—1 billion souls to save; 2 billion armpits to deodorize—but it never amounted to anything. China was very big, but very poor. All that is changing. But now the very size and scale that seemed so alluring is beginning to look ominous. And Americans are wondering whether the "China threat" is nightmarishly real.那就是说为什么中国在美国人的印象中如此深刻.这个拥有13亿人口,4倍于美国的国家.为了100多年来,一部分美国传教士和商人神往的国度. 10亿灵魂等待救赎;20亿腋窝等待除臭.虽然这些从来没有实现过.中国太大,太落后了.所有的一切都开始改变.现在完全的尺寸和刻度都如此的吸引开始去关注这个恶兆.美国开始显露出"中国威胁"是真正的噩梦.
Every businessman these days has a dazzling statistic about China, meant to stun the listener into silence. And they are an impressive set of numbers. China is now the world's largest producer of coal, steel and cement, the second largest consumer of energy and the third largest importer of oil, which is why gas prices are soaring. China's exports to the United States have grown by 1,600 percent over the past 15 years, and U.S. exports to China have grown by 415 percent.
每个生意人最近都用耀眼的统计数字打量中国,这些数字足以使听众保持安静.并且他们对这些数字记忆深刻.中国是目前世界上最大的煤,钢铁和水泥出产国,世界第二大能量消费国家,第三大石油进口国,这就是为什么瓦斯价格如此强势.在过去的15年中,来自于中国,输出到美国的产品增长率超过1600个百分点.而美国输出到中国的增长率却只有415个百分点.The most astonishing example of growth is surely Shanghai. Fifteen years ago, Pudong, in east Shanghai, was undeveloped countryside. Today it is Shanghai's financial district, eight times the size of London's new financial district, Canary Wharf, in fact only slightly smaller than the city of Chicago. And speaking of Venti Lattes, last week Starbucks CEO Howard Shultz noted on CNBC that in three years the company would probably have more cafes in China than in the United States.
最令人感到惊异的高速成长案例是上海(ShangHai).15年前,上海东城区浦东(Pudong)还是一片未开发的农田.而如今这里是上海的金融区,规模8倍于伦敦(London)的新金融城区Canary Wharf,只比芝加哥(Chicago)城小一点点而已一.Venti Lattes的说法,上周星巴克(Starbucks)的CEO Howard Shultz 告诉CNBC,在未来的三年中,他们计划在中国增开更多的门店,预计将会超过美国.
At the height of the Industrial Revolution, Britain was called "the workshop of the world." That title surely belongs to China today. It manufactures two thirds of the world's copiers, microwave ovens, DVD players and shoes. (And toys, my 5-year-old son would surely want me to add. All the world's toys.)
在工业革命的顶点阶段,大英帝国曾被誉为"世界工场".但是现在这个称号理所当然的应该属于中国.因为在那里世界上2/3的复印机,微波炉,DVD播放机和鞋子(还有玩具,我5岁的儿子就渴望拥有更多...世界上所有的玩具)
To get a sense of how completely China dominates low-cost manufacturing, consider Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart is America's—and the world's—largest corporation. Its revenues are eight times those of Microsoft, and make up 2 percent of America's GDP. It employs 1.4 million people, more than GM, Ford, GE and IBM put together. It is legendary for its efficient—some would say ruthless—efforts to get the lowest price possible for its customers. In doing this, it has used technology, managerial innovation, but, perhaps most significantly, China. Last year Wal-Mart imported $18 billion worth of goods from China. Of Wal-Mart's 6,000 suppliers, 5,000—80 percent—are in one country, and it isn't the United States.
为了加深中国低成本制造行业优势的印象,来看看沃尔玛(Wal-Mart). 沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)是美国,乃至世界上最大的商业公司.他的利润是美国微软公司(Microsoft)的8倍,构成了美国GDP总额中2个百分点.他拥有超过140万个雇员,超过了通用汽车(GM),福特汽车(Ford),通用电器(GE)和国际商用机器公司(IBM)所有的员工总数.他的传奇性源自他的有效能--有些人也许会唠叨说他的残酷或者无情,但是所有的努力都是为了获取最低价格为他们的用户.为了这个目的,他们使用高科技,管理革新,但是,也许最应该受到关注的是,中国.去年,沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)从中国采购了价值约为180亿美金的货物,在他们6000家供应商中,其中5000个,约百分之80在同一个国家.但可惜不是美国.
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